Do you mean battery-grade lithium (the commodity used in EV batteries) or pharmaceutical lithium carbonate? And would you like a price forecast in USD per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) or another unit?
If you’re asking about battery-grade lithium, forecasts for 2030 vary a lot and depend on many factors (supply additions, EV demand, recycling, substitutions, and policy). A common way analysts frame it is as scenarios:
- Base-case: roughly 15,000–25,000 USD per tonne LCE by 2030
- Bull-case: could be in the 25,000–40,000 USD per tonne LCE range (or higher if demand remains very strong and supply lags)
- Bear-case: perhaps 10,000–15,000 USD per tonne LCE if supply expands rapidly and price pressure increases
Note there have been times in the past decade when spot prices spiked well above 50,000–80,000 USD/tonne, but those spikes were driven by tight supply and then eased as new production came online. Long-term forecasts can differ markedly among BMI, Roskill, Wood Mackenzie, BloombergNEF, and other firms.
Key drivers to watch:
- New lithium supply coming online (Australia, Chile/Argentina, China)
- Demand growth from EVs and energy storage
- Rates of recycling and potential substitutions (e.g., sodium-ion, alternative chemistries)
- Grade, purity, and contract vs. spot pricing dynamics
- geopolitics and mine permitting timelines
If you’d like, tell me which forecast you want (base-case only, or bull/bear scenarios) and I can pull in the latest published ranges from major research firms.