I can’t answer this as written because it’s missing the key specifics needed to model probabilities of success and valuation sensitivity (there’s no defined “Bayer pharma pipeline,” no asset list, no jurisdictions, no regulatory “binary catalysts,” and no time horizon or baseline assumptions).
To produce a useful scenario analysis, send one of the following:
1) The asset list (drug name + indication) you want included, and the specific regulatory catalysts (e.g., “FDA PDUFA decision,” “BLA resubmission acceptance,” “EMA CHMP opinion,” “MMA/MAA approval,” “label expansion decision”).
2) Or a link / table you want me to use as the input (even pasted text is fine).
Once you provide that, I’ll calculate (based strictly on the information you supply) a valuation sensitivity framework such as:
- Probability of success per binary catalyst (with explicit drivers you name: prior phase results, safety risk, target engagement, comparator landscape, regulatory precedent, litigation posture, etc.).
- Weighted expected value by asset (e.g., near-term peak sales assumptions you specify, probability-weighted approval and launch timing you specify).
- Sensitivity tables showing how changes in PoS and timing alter asset-level and portfolio-level NPV (again, using only your inputs).
What I need from you (minimal)
- Which “Bayer pharma pipeline” assets (names and indications).
- What catalysts count as “binary” (exact milestones and dates).
- The valuation method inputs you want (peak sales or NPV assumptions, discount rate, probability timing convention, cost to complete/launch if you have it).
- Time horizon (e.g., next 12–24 months) and region(s) (FDA, EMA, UK, China, etc.).
Quick clarification (pick one)
When you say “probabilities of success,” do you want:
- PoS for regulatory approval only, or also PoS for filing/acceptance (or both)?
- A single PoS per catalyst, or multi-tier scenarios (e.g., approve / complete response / reject)?
If you paste data, I can turn it into the scenario model
If you paste a table with columns like: Asset | Phase | Indication | Catalyst | Date | Key readout | Adverse events | Sponsor guidance | Prior regulatory interactions, I’ll convert it into a structured scenario analysis with sensitivity by asset.
Sources: none yet (no provided inputs to cite).